RF Insights: October Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• The October WASDE report made almost no change to the long grain rice balance sheet. The only change was a 700,000 bushel decrease in production due to slightly lower yields than the previous estimate. New crop ending stocks were reduced to 47 million bushels.
• CBOT certificates stand at 2699, unchanged from last month.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders show the fund segment, as well as the mid-level and small traders, continuing to grow their net long position. The commercial segment is increasing their net short position with new crop farmer selling.  
• Projected imports for the new crop year were left at 96 million bushels, a record high if correct.  
• Milled rice prices are increasing, but at a slower pace than CBOT rough rice, thus prompting basis to be much weaker than normal. Milled rice prices should continue to climb throughout the marketing year as rice stocks decrease.
• The extreme heat this year has caused milling yields to be much lower than standard, which will cause rough rice stocks used in domestic milling to get consumed even faster than expected.
• The final 2025 PLC payment rate will be calculated based on the prices released on 10/30/26. See estimates below based on USDA prices as of 10/9/26.

Spot Rough Rice Futures

Orange Line = 9 day moving average
Blue Line = 27 day moving average

Price Loss Coverage

CBOT November ’26 Rough Rice Values, 9/1/26 through 10/12/26

U.S. Long Grain Rice Supply-Demand

CBOT Receipts as of 10/9/2026

CTFC Commitment of Traders

U.S. Medium Grain Supply-Demand

Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The October WASDE reduced old crop ending stocks from 325 million bushels to 315 million bushels.
• The soybean market has held up fairly well despite a lack of new bullish fundamentals and a selloff in corn. Traders will be focused on final yields and Chinese purchases over the next few months.
• The October 9 crop production report raised U.S. soybean estimated yield to 53.1, up from 52.8 in the September report.
• The October WASDE increased production and exports slightly, resulting in projected ending stocks increasing from 310 million bushels to 315 million bushels.  
• Large speculators are nearing a 6 year high in long positions, this puts the soybean market at risk for a major selloff similar to what happened recently in corn.

November '26 Soybean Futures

CBOT November '26 Soybean Values 9/2/26 through 10/12/26

U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

World Soybean Production & Stocks

River/Weather

The Mississippi River graphs show gradually declining levels for the rest of October. Ample water for navigation looks to be ensured for at least another 3 weeks. Additional rainfall will be needed to maintain adequate levels into November.

The near-term precipitation outlook shows potential for light rains in Eastern Arkansas andSoutheast Missouri. The 3-4 week outlook is for normal chances of rain for the late October/early November timeframe. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the next few weeks.