RF Insights: October Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

- We are 16+ days into the government shutdown so we are missing the October WASDE update and other key reports such as harvest progress, export sales, and CFTC Commitments of Traders.
- The October WASDE report likely would have tweaked field yields, lowered exports, and tweaked domestic demand.  The next WASDE is scheduled for Nov. 10 if the government reopens. 
- Export demand remains poor for rough rice and weakening for milled rice, although still decent. 
- CBOT receipts remain at 1552, unchanged from last month.
- Early indications for crop returns indicate rice acres could slip again which could provide the fundamental input needed for the markets to rally absent a change in demand.
- The medium grain milled rice market is holding up better than long grain despite the increase in stocks in the September WASDE report.

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November ’25 Rough Rice Futures

Orange Line = 9 day moving average

Blue Line = 27 day moving average

CBOT January ’26 Rough Rice Values, 9/2/25 through 10/15/25

CBOT Receipts As of 10-14-25

CFTC Commitments of Traders

NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

Soybean Fundamental Highlights

- As noted in the rice section we are missing key reports due to the government shutdown.  The October WASDE likely would have tweaked the soybean yield and likely would have cut exports.  However, crush could be revised higher so the net effect may be only slightly different ending stocks from the September WASDE.
- The market is holding up fairly well given the lack of progress with China trade negotiations.
- Uncertainly regarding biofuel policy, also remains a drag on the soybean complex.  RVO proposed volumes from EPA were better than expected, but they won’t be finalized until later this year or early next year.

November ’25 Soybeans

Orange Line = 9 day moving average

Blue Line = 27 day moving average

CBOT November ’25 Soybean Values, 9/2/25 through 10/15/25 

River / Weather

The Mississippi River and Ohio River graphs show declining levels during October, with draft restrictions already in place.  Low river levels will remain until we see significant rain in the upper Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. 

The near-term precipitation outlook shows a decent rain event for Northeast Arkansas and the Western Ohio River Valley.  Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the next few weeks. 

NWS 7 day Precipitation Forecast

NOAA Precipitation and Temperature General Outlook