Market Behavior: Summer 2026

Long grain production in the U.S. is projected to be down 34% compared to last year. Rice acres in Arkansas, at 851,000, are the lowest since 1977. This is a result of high stocks, low prices, and high input costs. Steadily increasing rice imports are a large part of the problem, although recent tariffs seem to be helping bring down rice imports this year. The lower expected production from this year’s crop has already caused a rebound in the rough rice market, as long grain rice stocks in 2027 are predicted to fall to very low levels.

Unfortunately, milled rice prices have been much slower to rise than CBOT rough rice, causing basis to weaken. Milled rice prices should improve as the large carryover stocks get consumed.  

The soybean futures market has been heavily influenced by the crude oil market’s reaction to developments in the Iran war. Midwest weather and China soybean purchases have also impacted the trade this summer. Soybean crush will be very strong due to biofuel demand and good margins.

Continued Chinese purchases will be needed to keep the market supported into harvest and beyond. Early harvest reports will also be important, as a 1 bushel per acre swing in the US crop moves the balance sheet approximately 84 million bushels.  

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