RF Insights: May Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• May WASDE report cut old crop imports to 82 million bushels, down from 95 million bushels in the previous year. Exports and Domestic use were left unchanged resulting in ending stocks dropping slightly, to 88 million bushels. Despite the drop, this would still be the largest ending stocks since July 31, 1986
• Export demand for rough rice has stabilized but remains slower than normal. Export demand for milled rice has been significantly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Alternate routes are being explored for rice and other products.      
• CFTC Commitments of Traders still show the fund segment is net short approximately 3,700 contracts and commercials are net long approximately 1,900 contracts.
• CBOT certificates are up from 1,891 to 2,118, approaching the all time high of 2,222.
• USDA’s May WASDE includes the first official balance sheet for the 2026 crop. It projects production down 20%, however many industry experts believe production could be down closer to 30%.  
• With lower production in the U.S. and growing concerns about the likelihood of a strong El Niño developing this year, the current large stocks could disappear fairly quickly, leading to a continuation of the recent rally.

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Old Crop Rough Rice Futures

CBOT September ’26 Rough Rice Values, 4/1/26 through 5 /12/26

U.S. Long Grain Rice Supply-Demand

‍September ’26 Rough Rice Futures

CBOT Receipts as of 5-11-26

CFTC Commitments of Traders

U.S. Medium Grain Rice Supply-Demand

Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The May WASDE increased old crop crush and dropped exports, resulting in a 10million bushel reduction to ending stocks, now projected at 340 million bushels.
• The market has been on a strong rally due to the Iran War crude oil premium, optimism on bio-fuel production, and the upcoming Trump/China summit.
• The May WASDE showed a tightening balance sheet for the 2026 crop with ending stocks dropping to 310 million bushels.  
• The risk in the new crop balance sheet for soybeans is that acres could end up being higher than forecast in the March 31 report. If acres turn out to be one million higher it would add 53 million bushels to production.  

Old Crop Soybean Futures

CBOT November '26 Soybean Values, 4/1/26 through 5/12/26

November '26 Soybean Futures

U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

World Soybean Production & Stocks

‍River / Weather 

The Mississippi River graphs show ample water for navigation after recent rains; however, the river forecast drops significantly without continued rainfall.    

The near-term precipitation outlook shows limited rains for Eastern Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. The 2-3 week forecast shows above normal chances for precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be above normal f or the next 3-4 weeks.  

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Mississippi River at New Madrid

Mississippi River at Memphis

Ohio River at Evansville

NWS 7-day Precipitation Forecast

NOAA Precipitation and Temperature General Outlook