RF Insights: March Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• The March WASDE report reduced imports a bit more, however, exports were also reduced resulting in no change to the projected ending stocks of 81 million bushels.
• Export demand for milled rice has slowed in recent weeks while export demand for rough rice remains well below last year.    
• CBOT receipts are up slightly from last month, at 1,891.
• Crop returns for rice still lag soybeans and corn.  Farmers are facing difficult decisions as they weigh the current crop returns versus what the rice prices could do if acres are cut significantly.  PLC payments also factor into the equation as the payment rate would decrease as prices increase.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders still show the fund segment is net short approximately 3,500 contracts, this is up from last month but sharply lower than the 7,000 net short a few months ago.
• An early look at the 2026 balance sheet shows long grain stocks could tighten dramatically into 2027 if acres are reduced 25%, even if beginning stocks are assumed to be higher than USDA’s current projection for old crop ending stocks.

Old Crop Rough Rice Futures

OrangeLine = 9 day moving average
Blue Line= 27 day moving average

CBOT May ’26 Rough Rice Values, 2/2/26 through 3/16/26

September ‘26 Rough Rice Futures

Orange Line = 9 day moving average
Blue Line = 27 day moving average

CBOT Receipts As of 3-13-26

CFTC Commitments of Traders

Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The March WASDE made only slight changes to the soybean balance sheet compared to the February report.  Ending stocks are still projected at 350 million bushels.
• The market has seen high volatility in March with the expectation of the Trump-Xi summit, the Iran war, and final ‘26/’27 RVOs expected to be released soon.
• South America is in full harvest with a record crop expected in Brazil.  
• U.S. planting intentions, finalized RVOs, and China trade developments will be the key market drivers for the next several weeks.
• An early look at the 2026 balance sheet shows soy stocks could grow if U.S. acres are 85 million, despite assuming exports increase to 1.7 billion bushels.

Old Crop Soybean Futures

Orange Line = 9 day moving average
Blue Line = 27 day moving average

CBOT May ’26 Soybean Values, 2/2/26 through 3/16/26

November ‘26 Soybean Futures

Orange Line = 9 day moving average
Blue Line = 27 day moving average

River / Weather 

The Mississippi River graphs show ample water for navigation, finally recharging with the recent heavy rains.  The Ohio River graphs show increased levels which should help as it flows South.  The Ohio River Valley is forecast to receive above normal rainfall for the spring.    

The near-term precipitation outlook shows no rain is expected for Arkansas and Southeast Missouri.  The long-term precipitation for the spring shows below normal precipitation is expected.  Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the next couple weeks, with the long-term outlook also showing above normal temperatures for the spring.  

NWS 7 day Precipitation Forecast

NOAA Precipitation and Temperature General Outlook