RF Insights: June Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• The June WASDE report cut old crop exports to 111 million bushels, and left imports unchanged at 82 million bushels. Domestic use was left unchanged, resulting in ending stocks rising to 90 million bushels. This compares to 83 million bushels last year.
• Export demand for rough rice remains slower than normal.  Export demand for milled rice has slowed due to the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.      
• CFTC Commitments of Traders show the fund segment now split between longs and shorts; overall, they were slightly net long on the latest report.  However, heavy selling activity since the last report may have them back to a net short position.  The commercial segment is heavily net short, and the non-reportable category is almost evenly split between long and short.
• CBOT certificates remain at 2,118.  This is just below the all-time record high of 2,222.
• USDA’s June WASDE did not change the outlook for the 2026 crop other than to increase beginning stocks due to the old crop changes. The June 30 acreage report will be closely watched for a better look at rice acres compared to the March 31 report.
• If production is confirmed to be substantially lower in the U.S., and if a strong El Niño is confirmed, the current large stocks could disappear fairly quickly, leading to a significant rally.

‍Old Crop Rough Rice Futures

CBOT September’26 Rough Rice Values, 5/1/26 through 6/16/26

September ‘26 Rough Rice Futures

CBOT Receipts As of 6-12-26

CFTC Commitments of Traders

Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The June WASDE increased old crop crush and dropped exports; however, the net result was unchanged, ending stocks still projected at 340 million bushels.
•  The soybean market has seen a large selloff in recent weeks as traders grew tired of trading the Iran war headlines and frustrated from the lack of new Chinese purchases. However, there are rumors this week of new China purchases.
•  The June WASDE left the 2026 crop balance sheet unchanged with ending stocks projected at 310 million bushels.  
•  The downside risk in the new crop soybean market is that the June 30 acreage report shows 1-2 million acres more than the March 31 report.
•  The soybean market could still rally if substantial Chinese purchases are confirmed.

Old Crop Soybean Futures

CBOT November’26 Soybean Values, 5/1/26 through 6/16/26

November ‘26 Soybean Futures

River and Weather

The Mississippi River graphs show ample water for navigation after recent rains; however, the river forecast drops significantly without continued rainfall. This is a concerning trend as we go into summer.

The near-term precipitation outlook shows potential heavy rains for Eastern Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. The 2-3 week forecast shows above normal chances for precipitation.  Temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal for the next 3-4 weeks.  

Mississippi River at New Madrid

Mississippi River at Memphis

Ohio River at Evansville

NWS 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

NOAA Precipitation and Temperature General Outlook