RF Insights: April Market Update

Rice Fundamental Highlights

• The April WASDE report left imports at 87 million bushels, but cut exports and domestic use, resulting in a large increase in projected ending stocks at 92 million bushels. This would be the largest stocks since August 1, 1986.
• Export demand remains poor for rough rice. Export demand for milled rice has been significantly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rice to Iraq and many other Persian Gulf ports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• USDA’s March 31 Planting Intentions report projected U.S. long grain acres down 22%.
• Arkansas long grain is down 24% at 900,000 acres. Some believe acres could be even lower. Missouri long grain acres are projected to be down 19%, at 170,000.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders still show the fund segment is net short approximately 2,900 contracts, and commercials are net long approximately 2,400 contracts.
• CBOT receipts are unchanged, at 1,891.
• An early look at the 2026 balance sheet shows long grain stocks could tighten into2027; however, the current weak demand and large stocks may keep the market from rallying until after harvest.

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Old Crop Rough Rice Futures

CBOT May ’26 Rough Rice Values, 3/2/26 through 4/13/26

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Rice Area Planted by Class

U.S. Long Grain Rice Supply-Demand

September ‘26 Rough Rice Futures

CBOT Receipts As of 4-10-26

CFTC Commitments of Traders

‍U.S. Medium Grain Supply-Demand

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Soybean Fundamental Highlights

• The April WASDE left the soybean balance sheet unchanged compared to the March report. Ending stocks are still projected at 350 million bushels.
• The market has continued to see high volatility in recent weeks as traders closely watch developments in the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.
• The ‘26/’27 RVOs were finalized last month with strong volumes, which should bolster soybean demand for biofuel for the next 18 months.
• South America is still expected to have a large crop, including a new production record in Brazil.  
• U.S. planting intentions showed soybean acres to be 84.7 million, below the trade expectation of 85.5 million. 
• An early look at the 2026 balance sheet shows soy stocks could grow only slightly if U.S. acres are below 85 million and exports improve. There is certainly risk of higher acres and continued disappointing exports, which would cause soy stocks to increase more substantially.

Old Crop Soybean Futures

‍CBOT May ’26 Soybean Values, 3/2/26 through 4/13/26

November ‘26 Soybean Futures

U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

‍World Soybean Production & Stocks

‍River / Weather 

The Mississippi River graphs show ample water for navigation; however, the river forecast drops significantly without additional rainfall.  

The near-term precipitation outlook shows some much-needed rain is expected for Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. The 2-3 week precipitation forecast shows normal chances. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the next couple of weeks.  

NWS 7-day Precipitation Forecast

NOAA Precipitation and Temperature General Outlook