Market Behavior
Certified data confirmed lower long-grain rice acres than expected, with Arkansas and Missouri both planting fewer acres than in 2024. Meanwhile, milled rice exports remain steady and imports continue to rise. Soybean markets recently rallied on lower planted acre reports, but future prices will hinge on export performance and evolving biofuel policy.
The rice industry has been waiting for confirmation of low long grain planted acres. We didn’t think the June Acreage report reflected it, but the FSA certified acres confirmed that they were higher than we thought. Arkansas’ total acres are 1.26 million compared to 1.45 million in 2024. Missouri rice acres are 210,000 compared to 214,000 in 2024.
The rough rice export market remains slow, but milled rice exports are still moving at a decent pace. The industry is hopeful the increased tariffs will reduce or at least slow the relentless increase of long grain milled rice imports into the U.S., which are projected at 96 million bushels (converted to rough rice equivalent). Long grain imports were 46 million bushels 10 years ago and 23 million bushels 20 years ago.
The soybean futures market had lost momentum and fallen back into the $9 range until the August USDA WASDE report revealed much lower actual planted acres. This spurred a rally despite the fact that the USDA projected yields at a record 53.6 bushels per acre U.S. average.
Exports will be key to the market direction this fall and winter, and the USDA projects exports at 1.75 billion bushels. The market can be supported if this can be achieved, but if the exports fall short, the market will likely struggle. Biofuel policy has scored some big wins this year, but uncertainty remains going into 2026, when we will determine how hard the new biofuel plants will run.
Grayson Daniels
Vice President of Grain Sales and Procurement
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